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The Coronamaterial #2

31.03.2020 | World/Pandemic

The covid-19 virus is often compared to the flu. One measure to compare against is mortality. So lets have a look at some links:

In a country like Italy we are currently in a situation with 119.827 total cases. Of these 14.681 has died. Source worldOmeter. That is 14981 / 119827 = 0.1225 = 12.25% has died of the observed cases. This percentile of course is lowered adding more cases of covid-19 infected people that hasn't been observed sick. This is called shadow numbers. At least in Denmark.

In Denmark the current situation is that we have 3757 infections of which 139 has died. Using the official danish "bank" of statistics (written in danish) we can see that in the years 2016, 2017 and 2018 we have 1795,1882 resp. 2103 who have died from the flu or pneumonia. It is hard to tell which of these two are the most fatal.

Now I'm not sure about the total number of cases of flu cases or pneumia cases. So no percentage calculated. However when the numbers for the year 2020 arrives at some point in the future we can tell if flu/pneumonia death rate has become substantially higher.

The covid-19 does not seem more deadly. But if we add the pandemic parameter into the picture it might look different. That is the exponential growth everyone talks about. If every inhabitant of Denmark becomes sick at once, we can't provide health care for those who need it. Hence people that need treatment, can't have it. This can mean that some people who could have been saved, aren't.

Back with more later.

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